Touring In Recession

To paraphrase the crazed anchorman Howard Beale from the 1976 movie “Network,” we don’t have to tell you times are bad. Everyone knows they’re bad. A dollar buys a nickel’s worth and banks are going bust.

But as the Dow goes south and unemployment rises, how will it affect touring? One helpful sales predictor is to look at which markets in the U.S. have already slipped into recession, those that are on the verge, and the ones where the economy is actually expanding.

The Graphic is available for download HERE

The graphic is based on extensive research by Moody’s Economy.com. While the National Bureau of Economic Research decides whether the United States is in recession, Economy.com has used its definition – two quarters of slowdown in Gross Domestic Product – and applied it to individual markets.

For a geographic location to be considered “in recession,” Economy.com applied data from the six months ending in August, compared it to the previous six months, and recognized economic contraction. “At risk” markets (yellow) and “expansion” markets (green) show increase but at variant levels.

A quick glance shows that everything looks big and bright in Texas, but not on the East and West tips of the U.S. According to Moody’s Economy.com, about two-thirds of the country’s 381 metropolitan areas are already in recession, with one in five at risk.

There is one important caveat to keep in mind in using this data. The map pictured here was based on data through August and we all know what has happened since then. Just like a traffic signal, the colors on an October data map may well be changing from green to yellow and yellow to red.

For a complete breakdown of markets, Economy.com’s research is located here.