The Politics Of Crowd Counting

That’s the official count from the Vatican and Brazilian officials, which hailed the massive gathering that, if the number is correct, would make it the second-largest papal Mass ever. But statisticians who specialize in crowd counting aren’t convinced, estimating the count at about half that.

The research director of Datafolha, one of Brazil’s top polling and statistic firms, said that based on the size of the crowd area and reasonable density estimates, he would place the turnout at between 1.2 million and 1.5 million people.

The area of Copacabana beach and adjoining streets encompassed about 497,000 square meters. If the Vatican’s count is accurate, 7.4 people per square meter would have been packed like the proverbial can of sardines.

A 2007 Rolling Stones concert, by comparison, drew what authorities estimated to be 1.5 million to the same beach – though the territory crowds covered is said to have brought that figure into doubt as well.

A higher figure serves to provide PR benefit for both Brazilian and Vatican officials. Brazil needs some good news in advance of upcoming World Cup soccer and Summer Olympic Games; the Catholic Church welcomes big numbers for the Mass on World Youth Day to give the new pope – and the first from the South American continent – a ringing endorsement.