The Biz: Economic Anxiety Leads To Stock Market Turmoil

Is ‘Recession Resilient’ Live Industry Ready For Its Next Test?

he threat, announcement and ultimately implementation of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff regime — which puts a 10% markup on nearly all imports, with even stiffer markups on goods from certain countries, including a staggering 104% tariff on Chinese goods — sent markets worldwide into a tailspin.

By noon April 9, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 11% from its close April 2, when Trump announced the tariffs, and the broader S&P 500 was down 12%. Shares of live entertainment stocks weren’t immune to the sell-off. Shares of Live Nation were off 12% in that same time period. MSG Entertainment was down 16% and sister company Sphere Entertainment down a whopping 24%.

And then it all changed. On April 9, Trump announced a 90-day pause on most of the Liberation Day tariffs — though he rose tariffs on Chinese goods even higher, to 125% — and the markets soared, desperate for any good news, though still closed lower than their pre-April 2 prices. Live Nation, for example, got back 98% of its post-Liberation Day losses in the last four hours of trading April 9.

And then on April 10, the hangover hit and markets dipped again.

Major investment firms have revised their recession forecasts, with a handful saying it’s an odds-on prospect that an economic downturn is coming (or has already started). Still, some Wall Street analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the live business.

Bank of America Securities analyst Peter Henderson wrote in a research note a reminder that concerts hold up relatively well during downturns due to “scarcity value with specific dates and limited shows in a particular area” and maintained a “buy” rating on shares of LYV with a $175 price target.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs highlighted research that showed concert spending rose 7.3% during The Great Recession, well ahead of broader consumer spending, which rose 3.2%. 

But the fundamentals of the current economy aren’t analogous to the Great Recession, which was triggered by a housing downturn and knock-on financial crisis which resulted in rising unemployment. Economists, nearly unanimously, predict rising prices due to the nature of tariffs, which cut into discretionary spending. Unemployment is likely to rise, particularly in industries that rely on imported inputs, but at the same time, even those who keep their jobs will have less to spend on want-tos, like concerts, because the prices of needs-tos, like food and clothing, will rise.

Consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month in March to its lowest level since Nov. 2022, with Americans expressing anxiety about both unemployment and rising costs, which may lead to delayed or total abandonment of discretionary purchases. Either outcome would cause difficulty for the live industry, though because of the time-forward nature of ticket purchasing, those effects may not be apparent immediately.

TikTok Gets Another Break

With a deal still unmade to sell the social-media platform to an American or allied company, as required by a law passed by an overwhelming Congressional majority, Trump granted another 75-day extension for Chinese owner ByteDance to find a buyer for TikTok. The original 75-day extension expired April 5 and loomed as news that Amazon might be interested in a purchase. 

Some congressional Republicans suggested that the new tariffs levied on China could be a bargaining chip Trump was using to get the divestment deal complete, though the only response from the China was raising tariffs on the U.S., which was met by an even higher levy from the White House.

The new deadline expires June 19.

Opry Entertainment To Take Over Nashville Amp From LN

Opry Entertainment Group — the venue arm of Nashville-based Ryman Hospitality — won the rights to operate Nashville’s Ascend Amphitheater, which had been part of Live Nation’s portfolio since its 2015 debut.

The city, which owns the amphitheater and awarded the contract, announced its decision April 2, awarding OEG the contract over both LN and competitor AEG.

OEG earned top marks in the financing proposal with the top bid of $41.2 million over the next 10 years. The city noted weaknesses in Live Nation’s proposal included concerns about ongoing antitrust litigation brought by the federal government and its “explanation how the venue would be made available to other promoters.”

OEG committed to “open room” booking with no exclusivity contracts.

Music Venue Alliance Nashville, an advocacy group for local venues and festivals, praised the city’s decision.

“Pretty dang cool to see Ryman publicly double down on their investment in the local community when it comes to the future of Ascend Amphitheater,” the group said in a statement on Instagram. “This is a great thing for Nashville’s local music ecosystem, and a great thing for Nashville.”