Guest Post: It’s Time To Bring Back Live Events

It’s not going to be easy and it will be met with resistance in certain quarters. But the time is right to mount a concerted industry-wide effort to reopen America’s sports and entertainment venues. 

And here’s why: Evidence has accumulated that not only is the coronavirus receding in  impact but  the forecasted mortality rate was overstated by a factor of 10 times. The actual mortality rate of COVID-19 is proving to be the same level of the mortality from influenza. You can read about the antibody study conducted by Stanford University researcher Dr. Jay Bhattacharya. 

According to the study, “The findings suggest that the large majority of people who contract COVID-19 recover without ever knowing they were infected, and that the U.S. infection fatality rate may be more than an order of magnitude lower than authorities had assumed. Based on this seroprevalence data, the authors estimate that in Santa Clara County the true infection fatality rate is somewhere in the range of 0.12% to 0.2% – far closer to seasonal influenza than to the original, case-based estimates.”

The article goes on to state; “If policy makers were aware from the outset that the COVID-19 death toll would be closer to that of seasonal flu than the millions of American deaths predicted by early models dependent on inputs that now look inaccurate, would they have risked tens of millions of jobs and livelihoods?” Another antibody study was released by USC covering Los Angeles County with similar findings.

To put all this into perspective, California Gov. Gavin Newsom predicted that 26 million people would be infected with coronavirus over an eight-week period. Under the mortality model used by Dr. Anthony Fauci that said the disease had a mortality rate 10 times the rate of the flu, approximately 250,000 to 500,000 Californians would die. According to Johns Hopkins University from April 19, there have been only 1,177 deaths to date in the state. And California is now also returning ventilators for lack of need. Dr. Fauci said recently to expect anywhere from 100,000 to 200,000 deaths nationally from COVID-19. Total deaths in the United States stand [Ed. note – as of April 19] at 40,661.  

Now that we now know that the disease is not the rampant killer that was initially thought, it is critical that we take concerted action to get the facts before our government leaders and before other impulsive but well-meaning actions cripple the live entertainment business beyond repair. If our industry is to open up in time for Fall 2020, there needs to be a lobbying campaign directed at government officials at the local, state and federal levels. Anything less will ensure that venues will remain closed indefinitely. The net result would be continued economic havoc on the industry and the American people will continue to be deprived of much-needed respite from the onslaught of bad news. These efforts to reopen our venues need to be fact-based. Adjustments will need to be made for the new reality; a topic worthy of its own article.

There is a video interview with Dr. Bhattacharya on the results from his study and, although it is 42 minutes long, it should be required viewing for anyone in our industry. Most notably, Dr. Bhattacharya states that he is now conducting the same tests for MLB and all the employees of their teams. In addition to the USC study, Stanford University is also conducting a test of L.A. County. These tests should help ease the fears of both government officials and the public at large as they become known. 

If we act efficiently and effectively then there is still time to salvage the second half of the year.